Crash in Cali values

[CaliforniaBen]

Very few people will feel confident to buy a California once this is all over as many people will not know how secure their jobs are, this in turn with over supply will result in prices going down even further, in regards to what is the point in this thread? Well, we are all not lucky enough to just go out and buy a California at drop of a hat, I saved hard to buy mine and would like the peace of mind that if I needed to sell It if I lost my job ( which is highly probable now) I would get reasonable money for it

 

[Borris]

@Borris , you question the point of this thread, then go on to share your answer to the question it poses!

Not everyone here could stomach a £20k unexpected loss in the value of their van. Folks in that situation (like me when I owned a more recent Ocean) can afford a Cali because of their ultra low depreciation measured over a very long period. The implication in your post is that if you can’t stomach such a loss, you perhaps shouldn’t take the risk of owning one, or shouldn’t be able to share your worries here. That’s a warning and sentiment valid of someone ‘investing’ in Bitcoin and the like, not a Cali.

Whatever happens to the Cali marketplace, I suspect Cali’s will do better than other similarly valued vehicles. I think it’s a valuable discussion, even if it’s very difficult to calculate the market value of something where there is currently no market. Asking prices on the forum are substantially higher than a year ago.

I’d be interested to see if a sensibly priced 18 month old low mileage Ocean stuck around long (that means around £45k). That’s what they were making a year ago but that price is now asked for a 3 or 4 year old with strong mileage.

The title of this thread is "CRASH IN CALI VALUES" and it was posted on the 6th April 2020.

Exactly what question does it pose? The title appears to be a statement as does the OP's post.

"I notice on the VW website there are 162 California's for sale , normally there are never more than 30. Also even before the crisis I noticed not much was selling at all. With all this stock and less demand plus the chance of recession I would of thought prices will be tumbling as a massive rate.

Good time for buyers, not so good for the ones that purchased due to the previous good residuals of the Cali"

The OP makes the point that there are a lot of Calis for sale and it should be a buyers market. A fair point except all the dealers are closed and have been since the 23rd March.

So I'm neither sure of the "question it poses" nor how I've somehow managed to answer it.

Your second paragraph hits the nail on the head. Buying a new vehicle is a financial risk and one shouldn't assume circumstances will always stay the same. However, it's worth remembering that unless someone is at the point of selling their vehicle they have lost nothing. The Cali they have purchased still does the same things and will give you the very same level of satisfaction.

We are in a state of limbo at present where the value of anyones Cali is currently pointless, hence my post. "it’s very difficult to calculate the market value of something where there is currently no market".

 

[2into1]

The title of this thread is "CRASH IN CALI VALUES" and it was posted on the 6th April 2020.

Exactly what question does it pose? The title appears to be a statement as does the OP's post.

"I notice on the VW website there are 162 California's for sale , normally there are never more than 30. Also even before the crisis I noticed not much was selling at all. With all this stock and less demand plus the chance of recession I would of thought prices will be tumbling as a massive rate.

Good time for buyers, not so good for the ones that purchased due to the previous good residuals of the Cali"

The OP makes the point that there are a lot of Calis for sale and it should be a buyers market. A fair point except all the dealers are closed and have been since the 23rd March.

So I'm neither sure or the "question it poses" nor how I've somehow managed to answer it.

Your second paragraph hits the nail on the head. Buying a new vehicle is a financial risk and one shouldn't assume circumstances will always stay the same. However, it's worth remembering that unless someone is at the point of selling their vehicle they have lost nothing. The Cali they have purchased still does the same things and will give you the very same level of satisfaction.

We are in a state of limbo at present where the value of anyones Cali is currently pointless, hence my post. "it’s very difficult to calculate the market value of something where there is currently no market".

I agree the title should have ended with a question mark. However it was clearly an invitation to discuss his expectation that we were heading for a crash.

 

[Borris]

Very few people will feel confident to buy a California once this is all over as many people will not know how secure their jobs are, this in turn with over supply will result in prices going down even further, in regards to what is the point in this thread? Well, we are all not lucky enough to just go out and buy a California at drop of a hat, I saved hard to buy mine and would like the peace of mind that if I needed to sell It if I lost my job ( which is highly probable now) I would get reasonable money for it

I don't know what will happen but many people will almost certainly be looking to holiday in the UK for some time to come, so I wouldn't be so sure about values going down in the long term. As has been seen in recent years, the trend for holidaying here in the UK has been growing as have the sales of tents, caravans and campervans etc.

On your second point, I sincerely hope that you do not end up losing your job or have to sell your Cali. However, harsh as it may seem, if you or I were to sell our Cali I'm afraid we would find ourselves, as always, at the mercy of current market forces. No one likes losing money but everything is up in the air at the moment so I see little point in speculating about unknown factors over which we have no control.

 

[Borris]

I agree the title should have ended with a question mark. However it was clearly an invitation to discuss his expectation that we were heading for a crash.

Well it's possible but I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a foregone conclusion.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I don't know what will happen but many people will almost certainly be looking to holiday in the UK for some time to come, so I wouldn't be so sure about values going down in the long term. As has been seen in recent years, the trend for holidaying here in the UK has been growing as have the sales of tents, caravans and campervans etc.

I also wonder if there will be growing interest in campervans (and MHs) post-lockdown as perhaps more people will suddenly realise the appeal of a self-contained travel/holiday 'capsule', even if in the past they've never considered it.

People with enough money for expensive long haul foreign travel, not practical for at least the rest of this year in most cases as I assume few people will want to risk exotic or 'adventure travel' destinations with vulnerable health systems, may suddenly find themselves Cali-fodder (sorry, I mean VW Commercial prospective customers...).

Pure speculation, of course.

 

[Borris]

I also wonder if there will be growing interest in campervans (and MHs) post-lockdown as perhaps more people will suddenly realise the appeal of a self-contained travel/holiday 'capsule', even if in the past they've never considered it.

Especially if Corvid19 is still around which it undoubtedly will be for some time yet.

I suspect that any holiday that involves large numbers of people being herded together in the same place, planes, hotels, cruise ships etc, is going to be a big put off for many traditional holiday makers for some time to come.

 

[Erbster]

I think Borris hits the nail on the head but I would also add that the high residuals on Calis are strongly influenced by the new price which has climbed inexorably.

CaliVentures

Adventures in a VW California camper van

caliventures364847572.wordpress.com

 

[Borris]

I think Borris hits the nail on the head but I would also add that the high residuals on Calis are strongly influenced by the new price which has climbed inexorably.

CaliVentures

Adventures in a VW California camper van

caliventures364847572.wordpress.com

A wonderful blog with lovely photos.

I've always enjoyed going abroad but I've often wondered why so many people think only that option constitutes a proper holiday. Over the years we have visited very many parts of the UK and it has never ceased to amaze me how varied and utterly glorious our own Nation is.

Your blog is a superb encouragement to people to explore our own shores.

 

[Erbster]

Thanks Borris.
Again, I couldn’t agree more.
We’ll be off as soon as we’re allowed, even if it’s to one of our fave local sites.

I have my fingers crossed for Shetland at the end of August (tickets were booked a month before lockdown).

CaliVentures

Adventures in a VW California camper van

caliventures364847572.wordpress.com

 

[Jay20cali]

To think, that was only 12 years ago.
Sounds cheap compared to today’s cost.
The price of the Cali has basically doubled in 12 years.
Spec dependant...

My first cali 130se 2008
3000 miles as new 10 months old
Cost 30k
Owned it 3yrs and 20,000 miles and sold it for 35k
I loved that van.
the spec then was pretty different ...
Simper should I say?
my latest t6.1 it’s full of tech way too much for my liking .
But a beautiful thing all the same