Law of Unintended Consequences or Every Cloud has a Silver Lining? Discuss

[WelshGas]

Back on thread.
My Daughter in law , a solicitor in Sydney NSW, is now in self quarantine as my son's work colleague has tested +tve. My son is an A/E specialist. They are expected to work but wearing full masks and gloves to protect patients until they develope symptoms then they go off on sick leave and hopefully recover and be back at work when the epidemic is at its height.

 

[Digger]

Back on thread.
My Daughter in law , a solicitor in Sydney NSW, is now in self quarantine as my son's work colleague has tested +tve. My son is an A/E specialist. They are expected to work but wearing full masks and gloves to protect patients until they develope symptoms then they go off on sick leave and hopefully recover and be back at work when the epidemic is at its height.

Now that is dedication. We seem to forget those who serve us best. Worth more than any politician anywhere.

 

[Amarillo]

The World Health Organisation are estimating a global mortality rate of 3.4%. If true, this is far higher than any previous official estimates I have seen. By comparison, seasonal flu kills between 0.5% and 1% of those infected.

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

 

[WelshGas]

The World Health Organisation are estimating a global mortality rate of 3.4%. If true, this is far higher than any previous official estimates I have seen. By comparison, seasonal flu kills between 0.5% and 1% of those infected.

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Note though that that % Mortality is based on the known infected and tested cases. They still state that there is no hard data on how many patients have been infected exhibiting mild symptoms to No symptoms and therefore not tested and hence included in the figures.
This data will only be available if community testing of large population numbers of asymptomatic citizens is undertaken. Also the mortality figures depend significantly on the degree and quality of medical intervention.
eg: N Korea - I very much doubt the general population will receive the same degree of care as the Republic leaders will.

 

[Amarillo]

eg: N Korea - I very much doubt the general population will receive the same degree of care as the Republic leaders will.

The Dear Leader has declared North Korea a coronavirus free zone.

 

[WelshGas]

 

[ejmoore]

Interesting observations.

Could a virus inflicted cull of the older generation and those with pre-existing medical conditions have a positive economic impact?

Maybe, but as an asthmatic older person I'm not that keen on the idea myself

 

[Dottie]

Dad’s just back from a cruise on the Nile and is feeling dreadful.....someone helpfully told him that there has been a report of coronavirus on a cruise on the Nile.....the fact is that it’s more likely that getting up at 5am to do every trip available with his new girlfriend has caused him massive exhaustion!
He’s 87 this month...and she’s 77! he should know better and she might appreciate that at 87 she too might need some downtime!
i dropped food off for him at his door today....we had no contact, I zipped my jacket up to cover my mouth....then he handed me an letter to drop off for the doc....thus followed a wash of my hands with gel.....and a phone call to check on him....

i still believe he’s exhausted ...no virus symptoms...but I’m taking no chances!
I just feel dreadfully sad for him cos he’s probably missing Mum.

PS I too learned to sail on a yellow Mirror!

 

[Dave Wickham]

Glad I have a Cali as I can get away and wild camp as UK holidays and campsite bookings will soar.....

 

[WelshGas]

For those who are interested

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

[Amarillo]

For those who are interested

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

It is surprising how little infection there appears to be in countries which share a land border with China.
North Korea - 0
Russia - 17
Mongolia - 0
Kazakhstan - 0
Kyrgyzstan - 0
Tajikistan - 0
Afghanistan - 4
Pakistan - 6
India - 43
Nepal - 1
Bhutan - 1
Myanmar - 0
Laos - 0
Vietnam - 30

I suspect that the reality is that the virus is doing rather well in most of those countries.

According to this website, the worst affected countries* are:
1 - South Korea, 146 cases per million population
2 - Italy, 122
3 - Iran, 78
4 - Bahrain, 64
5 - China, 56
6 - Switzerland, 38
7 - Norway, 32
8 - Singapore, 26
9 - Sweden, 20
10 - France, 19
...
28 - UK, 4
...
42 - USA**, 1.7

*This excludes some small countries such as the Vatican City which has an infection rate of 1000, and San Marino, 1078.

**By March 6, only 1,895 people in the US had been tested for the virus, the UK had performed 18,083 tests by the same date with a fifth of the population.

 

[Calimili]

No tests = no contagion confirmed.....

 

[Amarillo]

No tests = no contagion confirmed.....

And, more dangerously, no isolation.

The USA is in a particularly dangerous situation.

 

[Calimili]

The USA is in a particularly dangerous situation.

and they don't know it yet

 

[WelshGas]

I don't understand the need to test. If the symptoms fit then Isolate. OK you pick up a few patients with Flu or a heavy cold. Does it matter. All the test does is confirm the Clinical Impression. Why does everything have to have a test ? In the olden days Clinical Accumen was all the Doctor had, now everything has to be tested.

 

[Calimili]

I don't understand the need to test. If the symptoms fit then Isolate. OK you pick up a few patients with Flu or a heavy cold. Does it matter. All the test does is confirm the Clinical Impression. Why does everything have to have a test ? In the olden days Clinical Accumen was all the Doctor had, now everything has to be tested.

I agree in principle. But lots of people who didn't have symptoms got tested positive because they have been in some area of the world or in contact with people at risk or with confirmed Coronavirus.
It makes it difficult now to compare like for likes in the number of people confirmed with Covid-19. In some countries, like the ones mentioned by Amarillo, it seems surprisingly low numbers. On the opposite example is Italy who tested plenty of people without symptoms and found many positive. Germany unless you have Temperature you don't get tested.
At least in China it seems that the infected are in decline finally

 

[Amarillo]

and they don't know it yet

The Dow Jones does!

 

[Calimili]

The Dow Jones does!

not yet. This is the OIL (co(k up that couldn't have been timed better and panic for Coronavirus in Europe. The bomb on the DJ for Coronavirus in US is not priced in yet

 

[WelshGas]

Incubation period confirmed at 5 days.

ACP Journals

 

[WelshGas]

Very Interesting. On the BBC 10pm news.

 

[Amarillo]

According to this website, the worst affected countries* are:
1 - South Korea, 146 cases per million population
2 - Italy, 122
3 - Iran, 78
4 - Bahrain, 64
5 - China, 56
6 - Switzerland, 38
7 - Norway, 32
8 - Singapore, 26
9 - Sweden, 20
10 - France, 19
...
28 - UK, 4
...
42 - USA**, 1.7

*This excludes some small countries such as the Vatican City which has an infection rate of 1000, and San Marino, 1078.

**By March 9, only 1,895 people in the US had been tested for the virus, the UK had performed 18,083 tests by the same date with a fifth of the population.

How quickly things have changed since Monday.

1 (2) - Italy, 206 cases per million population; 1,005 tests per million population
2 (1) - South Korea, 154; 4,099
3 (3) - Iran, 120; -
4 (7) - Norway, 120; -
5 (4) - Bahrain, 115; 4,910
6 (-) - Denmark, 106; -
7 (-) - Qatar, 91; -
8 (6) - Switzerland, 75; 578
9 (5) - China, 56; -
10 (9) - Sweden, 50; -
...
30 (28) - UK, 7; 387
...
42 (42) - USA, 4; 26

 

[Amarillo]

 

[T6 CFO]

By circulating this I presume it’s your view.


Mike

 

[willwander]

Whether you're Blue or Red, it's pretty poor taste. Politics in this country has become so nasty.

 

[Dave Wickham]

We need a bit of gallows humour to keep us all going bonkers with all this depressing news!!!