What after Phase 1

[Amarillo]

The Phase 1 vaccination programme has got off to a flying start. The gov.uk website give the following order of priority:

1. Residents in a care home for older adults and staff working in care homes for older adults
2. All those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3. All those 75 years of age and over
4. All those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals (not including pregnant women and those under 16 years of age)
5. All those 65 years of age and over
6. Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group (see below)
7. All those 60 years of age and over
8. All those 55 years of age and over
9. All those 50 years of age and over
10. Rest of the population [18-49] (to be determined)

Once priority 1-9 is complete it is estimated that 98-99% of people at risk of death will have been vaccinated.

So how should those many people within Group 10 be prioritised?

So far the priority list determined by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has been based solely on saving life and protecting the NHS. Should this priority continue to 45-50 years olds etc.?

Public sector workers such as teachers and the police are clamouring for priority, quieter but also eager to get the vaccine are people in face to face jobs with the public such as shop workers.

There is evidence that BAME groups are most at risk of contracting the disease. Should the priority be by ethnicity?

Or should the priority be those transmitting the disease, in which case 18-25 year olds or university students might be next in line.

Also there are many countries with poor vaccination programmes. The WHO is shouting out for rich counties to share their vaccine with poorer countries. Should Britain pause its Phase 2 ambitions and focus on saving lives in poorer countries?

The EU is kicking off at the UK for hoarding the AZ vaccine (even though it hasn't yet found the time to approve its use). Should we be supporting our EU neighbours?

 

[Algor]

You would think that teachers and police etc will become group 5 or 6, we need to get kids back in education as soon as possible and teachers seem to be insisting on this to make it happen. Regarding Uni student's my son is at Nottingham Uni, out of the 10 people in his household 7 of them tested positive in late September, he had it last March (we think), the other 2 well they just appear to be immune, you would have to think that heard immunity is well underway in the Uni population. I think we should be looking to protect the vulnerable 1st regardless of if they are here or in the EU, it's the fastest way of getting back to normal. If it is soley down to availability then if group 10 in your list in the UK gets a vaccine before say the over 70's in Ireland then that would be obscene.

 

[Moakesy]

The Phase 1 vaccination programme has got off to a flying start. The gov.uk website give the following order of priority:

1. Residents in a care home for older adults and staff working in care homes for older adults
2. All those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3. All those 75 years of age and over
4. All those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals (not including pregnant women and those under 16 years of age)
5. All those 65 years of age and over
6. Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group (see below)
7. All those 60 years of age and over
8. All those 55 years of age and over
9. All those 50 years of age and over
10. Rest of the population [18-49] (to be determined)

Once priority 1-9 is complete it is estimated that 98-99% of people at risk of death will have been vaccinated.

So how should those many people within Group 10 be prioritised?

So far the priority list determined by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has been based solely on saving life and protecting the NHS. Should this priority continue to 45-50 years olds etc.?

Public sector workers such as teachers and the police are clamouring for priority, quieter but also eager to get the vaccine are people in face to face jobs with the public such as shop workers.

There is evidence that BAME groups are most at risk of contracting the disease. Should the priority be by ethnicity?

Or should the priority be those transmitting the disease, in which case 18-25 year olds or university students might be next in line.

Also there are many countries with poor vaccination programmes. The WHO is shouting out for rich counties to share their vaccine with poorer countries. Should Britain pause its Phase 2 ambitions and focus on saving lives in poorer countries?

The EU is kicking off at the UK for hoarding the AZ vaccine (even though it hasn't yet found the time to approve its use). Should we be supporting our EU neighbours?

Good question. I would say who next should be emergency services. They get up close and personal to a wide variety of the population and make sacrifices that many of us would not be prepared to do.
As to if we should pause or not, I would say that is a difficult one. The EU has messed up and it reported at the weekend that they planned to blame big Pharma, which had what’s happened.
The UK’s strategy in vaccines has been much better. That said, I wouldn’t want an Italian grandmother to miss the vaccine for the sake of a much lower risk Brit.

 

[willwander]

Age order seems fair, no one is more/less important than anyone else.

 

[Calimili]

The EU has fu(ked up the vaccine too. In Germany we have 1.5m people vaccinated in one month. At this pace it will take 5 years. Rest of Europe same story.
The things is, why should the EU open its borders if we (in the EU) are still not vaccinated?
That means, the British people will be vaccinated and healthy by summer, ready to restart to live again normally, but still won't have it that easy crossing into the continent for holiday...
I wonder, why is Pfizer late with the deliveries though?

 

[Borris]

The EU has fu(ked up the vaccine too. In Germany we have 1.5m people vaccinated in one month. At this pace it will take 5 years. Rest of Europe same story.
The things is, why should the EU open its borders if we (in the EU) are still not vaccinated?
That means, the British people will be vaccinated and healthy by summer, ready to restart to live again normally, but still won't have it that easy crossing into the continent for holiday...
I wonder, why is Pfizer late with the deliveries though?

View attachment 72507

They should be able to get that standing upright again.

 

[Algor]

The EU has fu(ked up the vaccine too. In Germany we have 1.5m people vaccinated in one month. At this pace it will take 5 years. Rest of Europe same story.
The things is, why should the EU open its borders if we (in the EU) are still not vaccinated?
That means, the British people will be vaccinated and healthy by summer, ready to restart to live again normally, but still won't have it that easy crossing into the continent for holiday...
I wonder, why is Pfizer late with the deliveries though?

View attachment 72507

Must be your roads mate.

 

[OGII]

Age order seems fair, no one is more/less important than anyone else.

Applying that logic young doctors & nurses, health care assistants would have been in group 12,13,14 etc.

There does seem to be some merit in trying to minimise deaths amongst the most likely to be affected, be that due to age/ health factors and then people who are more exposed through no choice of their own and lets face it some occupations are not protected by the lockdown, quite the opposite they have to keep working and in some cases mopping up the fwits that have large weddings, shisha parties, raves or even the secondary school kids with no sense that their actions are literally killing their grandparents.

The question, as posed in the original post, is how to do that in an equitable way.

And as much as the arguments about vacinating European old folk ahead of another countries younger population sounds good surely we then need to say all the old folk in Africa/Asia, etc should get their doses before Europeans of younger ages. In reality that's not practical.

Essentially the UN, G8, whoever should be banging heads together to get as much production sorted without petty quarrelling and political spats.

The Imperial College decision to stop developing what looked like yet another viable vaccine and put their energies into tackling emerging variants is good thinking in my book.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Humanitarian principles would dictate that the protection offered by the vaccine should be prioritised solely on the basis of need, and that means in the order of greatest relative vulnerability to being killed by the virus. Ethically it should be about impartiality, not about 'fairness' which is a subjective notion.

From what I read recently, the greatest age-adjusted risk of death by occupation has been shop workers and certain other occupations such as security guards.

Teachers, according to the same sources, have had only an average risk of death from covid (again, age adjusted).

However, the practicality of organising vaccination invitations by occupation may in any case be impracticable, as well as potentially divisive and politically charged. Similarly it would presumably be unpalatable to prioritise men over women even though men have twice the risk.

 

[willwander]

Applying that logic young doctors & nurses, health care assistants would have been in group 12,13,14 etc.

This post is about the next batch, I agreed with the first batch, where healthcare go first.
Broadly speaking your outcome seems to be most determined by age. Beyond that it gets too complicated, who’s the more worthy, police or plumber, priest or politician therefore age seems reasonable and covers all professions equally.

One thing I’ve appreciated over the pandemic is that ‘key workers’ and people who have just done a brilliant job cover a lot more professions than get championed by the unions and the media.

 

[OGII]

Broadly speaking your outcome seems to be most determined by age.

Not convinced I suggested an outcome, just that some groups by definition are more exposed than others.

Velma's Dad nails it with the sentiment "where most effective". On that basis from recent reports unhealthy lifestyle high BMI males.

All the focus has been on preventing deaths, probably some merit in looking at those groups most likely to be overly impacted by long covid. I'm not convinced we understand the morbidity impacts fully yet, it looks like there is a timebomb there.

 

[Amarillo]

Age order seems fair, no one is more/less important than anyone else.

It would be an easy way to continue.

I have thought of another two categories:
By BMI - instead of "eat out to help out" we could have "pork out to vacs out".
And the military. Covid on a submarine could run riot.

 

[pjm-84]

Humanitarian principles would dictate that the protection offered by the vaccine should be prioritised solely on the basis of need,

Agree. Those who need it most.

Military will be fine. Although Matlows on a sub may be a slightly higher risk!

 

[Corradobrit]

For all the negatives to living in Texas, at least the authorities have got to grips with an effective vaccination program. Had my first shot of moderna vaccine in Dec and scheduled to get the 2nd this week. Fingers crossed these vaccines are not thwarted by new variants as all will be for nought and back to square one.

 

[Amarillo]

One thing I’ve appreciated over the pandemic is that ‘key workers’ and people who have just done a brilliant job cover a lot more professions than get championed by the unions and the media.

“Mr Johnson has condemned a Labour call for all teachers to be vaccinated over half-term and other key workers to be pushed up the priority list”

Boris Johnson reveals schools won't reopen until at least MARCH 8

Boris Johnson last night conceded to fellow MPs that the school closures were having a 'huge impact' on the education of millions of pupils.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I happen to agree with the Prime Minister.

It should be for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to determine the priority, not for politicians to decide based on the group with the loudest voice.

 

[OnlyJen]

There is a plethora of "deserving case" arguments at present. I originally argued against oldies getting vaccinated first but on reflection I agree. It may seem inverse to the national need to put retirees before productive workers but given it is that age putting the most pressure on our front line healthcare personnel and resources then taking the pressure of that area first seems to be common sense.

Once the hospital population of c-19 victims is normal compared to other viral outbreaks then the country can start inching back towards normality.

 

[B J G]

Agree. Those who need it most.

Military will be fine. Although Matlows on a sub may be a slightly higher risk!

Maximum pre sailing quarantine measures and testing will reduce the risk to a very low point.

ie entire crew isolated as a unit.

 

[Amarillo]

There is a plethora of "deserving case" arguments at present.

Here’s a “deserving” case to set the cat among the pigeons.

Over dinner tonight (we dine early to eat together) Ben asked what happens to prisoners if they get Coronavirus? The answer is of course that they get treated according to their needs.

But here we have a sub group of the population thrown together in a confined space and unable to move about freely - not all that dissimilar to sailors on a ship. We still have a duty of care for the prison population.

Should they be next?

Wow- it would give the Daily Express the tabloid equivalent of apoplexy if they were prioritised, and for that somewhat mischievous reason, I shall cast my as yet uncast vote for prisoners. Unfortunately you shall only see my vote in the poll above as “other” as ten choices is the limit and cannot now be edited.

 

[OnlyJen]

I don't know how many ICU spaces there are, if any, in prison hospitals but I would treat them as any other sector of the population, over 70 prisoners being given the vaccine first. They by definition are self-isolating as a group from the rest of the population so in the same category as military units and other isolation groups.

 

[Amarillo]

I don't know how many ICU spaces there are, if any, in prison hospitals but I would treat them as any other sector of the population, over 70 prisoners being given the vaccine first. They by definition are self-isolating as a group from the rest of the population so in the same category as military units and other isolation groups.

Except you have people discharged and admitted daily, perhaps more like a hospital than a ship in that respect. And of course there are the prison wardens who come and go daily, picking it up from their family and delivering it to prisoners or the other way around.

 

[OnlyJen]

Except you have people discharged and admitted daily, perhaps more like a hospital than a ship in that respect. And of course there are the prison wardens who come and go daily, picking it up from their family and delivering it to prisoners or the other way around.

Well, whatever you want, anyone can make an argument for anything but when the prison population is less than the "dead from covid" population then they are in no special category as far as I am concerned.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Wow- it would give the Daily Express the tabloid equivalent of apoplexy if they were prioritised, and for that somewhat mischievous reason, I shall cast my as yet uncast vote for prisoners. Unfortunately you shall only see my vote in the poll above as “other” as ten choices is the limit and cannot now be edited.

I'd love to see that if only to see your reaction to the reaction of Express readers!

In similar vein, I wonder if you saw the announcement a week or so ago that the Government of Israel would vaccinate all its prisoners, however Palestinian prisoners would be the last in the queue for that.

(At the same time they have also declined to provide vaccines to the populations of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, even though that is clearly obligated by the Fourth Geneva Convention and having nevertheless provided vaccines to Jewish settlers within the OPT, who are living there illegally under international law.)

 

[Amarillo]

Well, whatever you want, anyone can make an argument for anything but when the prison population is less than the "dead from covid" population then they are in no special category as far as I am concerned.

The easy solution for the JCVI is to stick to the inverse age order, and that may well be what they will do. It will be far harder for them to prioritise one group over another. Our poll so far is tilting towards teachers, but they are no more at risk of contracting the virus than an average person.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Just watching JVT being interviewed right now on C4 News. Interestingly he just said very clearly that JCVI's nine cohorts (descending age, plus med conditions) will be maintained as the priority order. He reiterated that there is no signal in the clinical data that suggests that teachers are more vulnerable than average.

That counters some of the recent news reporting that govt is considering prioritising certain occupations after 15 Feb...

 

[westfalia]

Well, whatever you want, anyone can make an argument for anything but when the prison population is less than the "dead from covid" population then they are in no special category as far as I am concerned.

Seeing as you are `New to this forum, if i could give you a tip.

Amarillo will argue until he's blue in the face that black is white.
disclaimer - I'm woke.