Depreciation thoughts

[flymartin]

We went to test drive a California yesterday, with the plan to put down a deposit and order a new Beach Camper for delivery in about a year. With delivery timelines now looking likely to be even longer, whilst we were driving a new ish T6.1 yesterday, we hit on the idea of buying one right now AND ordering a new one at the same time.

The idea is we buy one for £69k now, order one with £5k deposit, then in a year when the new one arrives to our exact spec, sell today’s one for minimal depreciation. Jam today!

However, I checked on WBAC, having seen on here that resale values are crazy and people are making a profit selling their Cali’s after years of ownership, and WBAC value for the one I could buy today is £54k. A loss of £15k immediately!

What do you think of my idea to buy one now and sell it in a year? How do you think about the WBAC figure and depreciation?

Thanks! Martin

 

[Joker 1299]

We went to test drive a California yesterday, with the plan to put down a deposit and order a new Beach Camper for delivery in about a year. With delivery timelines now looking likely to be even longer, whilst we were driving a new ish T6.1 yesterday, we hit on the idea of buying one right now AND ordering a new one at the same time.

The idea is we buy one for £69k now, order one with £5k deposit, then in a year when the new one arrives to our exact spec, sell today’s one for minimal depreciation. Jam today!

However, I checked on WBAC, having seen on here that resale values are crazy and people are making a profit selling their Cali’s after years of ownership, and WBAC value for the one I could buy today is £54k. A loss of £15k immediately!

What do you think of my idea to buy one now and sell it in a year? How do you think about the WBAC figure and depreciation?

Thanks! Martin

So the one you could buy today is overpriced by (at least) £15k

 

[Mr T]

Firstly, who was asking for a 5k deposit?
obviously no one can predict what a Cali will sell for in 12 -18 months from now, it’s more a question initially of “what is it worth to you to have use of a camper for the next year or so?” A few thousand?
What can you afford to lose?
It’s a small gamble but one that may be worthwhile to have use of a camper now. Only you can decide on the risks for you personally.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

Ask yourself who is selling the equivalent van for £54k? If you can find one then get that one. WBAC prices change daily. So it’s quite probable that £69k is too much and £54k is not enough.
The correct price is what someone is prepared to pay.

 

[andyinluton]

So the one you could buy today is overpriced by (at least) £15k

The WBAC figures on Californias are a way out at the moment.
Look at what's for sale at the moment & try and find a T6.1 for anything like £54K

 

[Joker 1299]

Anything is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. WBAC, to some extent, set the market; a bit like a modern day Glass’s guide. They are in the business of selling cars; if they don’t buy they can’t sell. So go and find the one that they think they can buy for £54k.

 

[Tomato]

WBAC is owned by BCA Auctions who also own Cinch, it’ll be based on very limited data due to tiny Cali volumes going through auction recently so isn’t a good measure of value. The laws of supply and demand will prevail when supplies get more plentiful, Cali’s will be coming down from their current lofty heights. You’ll be losing a good few thousand immediately followed by a few more next year

 

[andyinluton]

WBAC want to buy cars that they can sell via cinch. A vw California would just get put back into a trade auction, their offers have to cover themselves and the trade buyer both making a profit.
Lake of new vans together with price increases will prop up secondhand prices for a few more years.

 

[Joker 1299]

The market is what it is. You can influence it as much as wbac If you have a 6.1 that you think is worth £69k then don’t sell it for less. Simples

 

[flymartin]

Thanks all .

WBAC want to buy cars that they can sell via cinch. A vw California would just get put back into a trade auction, their offers have to cover themselves and the trade buyer both making a profit.

Ah ha that makes sense. So WBAC might be a good way to track relative depreciation over time (say if £54k drops to £52k, it would indicate a roughly 4% drop in value between two quotes) but not much use for getting the absolute value..

You’ll be losing a good few thousand immediately followed by a few more next year

I think that is what I needed to hear, even if I don’t like it!

I think after reading the replies in this thread I’m going to order a new one, and not buy the used one for immediate fun after all. If a “perfect” used one comes along, I could always buy it and cancel my order.

 

[Tomato]

Thanks all .

Ah ha that makes sense. So WBAC might be a good way to track relative depreciation over time (say if £54k drops to £52k, it would indicate a roughly 4% drop in value between two quotes) but not much use for getting the absolute value..



I think that is what I needed to hear, even if I don’t like it!

I think after reading the replies in this thread I’m going to order a new one, and not buy the used one for immediate fun after all. If a “perfect” used one comes along, I could always buy it and cancel my order.

Think of the saving too if you order it in the right spec with the options you need for resale/ essential living rather than going bananas with the extras - it’s the silly ones you’ll tear up money on. What’s the extra resale value on ProSillyVWcrapNav? 10p?

 

[scottk]

The ocean doesn’t need many options. Excluding engine and 4 motion and 2 tone paint. My big tickets are towbar, metallic paint and shower. I don’t like the 2 tone colour options-pity they don’t do black and red! Or silver/blue. Current ones are not great for me.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I think what you may find.
Low depreciation are those who bought vans 3+ years ago and can now sell them for similar money, due to Volkswagens endless price increases.
Possibly the newer vans will actually have a bigger depreciation fall.

Im guessing lots of people can easily stretch to £50k for a Campervan, a lot less who can stomach £75k

Personally, I would sniff out a tidy 15year old van. Pay as little as possible. Run it whilst the new one turns up and then decide which one to flog when you have both.

 

[Perfectos]

With the very recent announcement of VW, they may just have given existing owners a get out of jail free card, I think the prices of second hand calis will remain very “firm” for some considerable time

Supply vs Demand

 

[sidepod]

Asking and getting are two different things. I stopped counting at 40 for sale on this site. That looks like over supply to me all day long.

 

[sidepod]

Asking and getting are two different things. I stopped counting at 40 for sale on this site. That looks like over supply to me

 

[reserves]

Asking and getting are two different things. I stopped counting at 40 for sale on this site. That looks like over supply to me all day long.

I agree but come spring time this can change very quickly, as it does every year. People don’t seem to be able to plan ahead!

 

[bob_summers]

Buy a worn out T4 so you can appreciate how good the 6.1 is when it arrives

Keep 6.1 for 10 years so depreciation isn’t a factor

Sell it in 2032 and buy a T4 for nostalgia’s sake (with electric motor retrofit)

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Do Beaches hold their value like Oceans?
I like the overall idea but I would hedge my bets by getting a 5 year old Beach which would hold its value better I imagine.

 

[sidepod]

Do Beaches hold their value like Oceans?
I like the overall idea but I would hedge my bets by getting a 5 year old Beach which would hold its value better I imagine.

Oh no!!!!!!!!

 

[sidepod]

Buy a worn out T4 so you can appreciate how good the 6.1 is when it arrives

Keep 6.1 for 10 years so depreciation isn’t a factor

Sell it in 2032 and buy a T4 for nostalgia’s sake (with electric motor retrofit)

Just buy a 4 full stop. Zero problems.

 

[reserves]

This thread can only talk about the past. No one knows what the future holds.

Personally, once the manufacturer issues are out the way delivery times with come back to normal. At that point a buyer needs to figure out if they want to pay £70k for a brand new vehicle and wait 6 months or pay £68k for a used model.

Campervans become super popular because of the pandemic which one would have to assume will come to some kind of ending which in theory should release more second hand campers to the market.

Make of that what you will.

 

[TheDoc]

As I’m not selling my cali depreciation is irrelevant and if I did sell and loose a bucket load of cash it wouldn’t bother me in the slightest - I bought it for enjoyment and I’ve spent my cash - if I got a few quid back when I sold i’d see it as a bonus.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

As I’m not selling my cali depreciation is irrelevant and if I did sell and loose a bucket load of cash it wouldn’t bother me in the slightest - I bought it for enjoyment and I’ve spent my cash - if I got a few quid back when I sold i’d see it as a bonus.

You are in the very fortunate position of having so much money the cost of a vehicle, a VW California is irrelevant to you. Not everyone is in the same position as you and depreciation is a big factor when buying a vehicle and that’s what a camper van is a vehicle, and most vehicles until recently lost humongous amounts from new. You could say the same about your house because you have to live somewhere and you have had 30 years of enjoyment and paying a mortgage to get it.

 

[TheDoc]

You are in the very fortunate position of having so much money the cost of a vehicle, a VW California is irrelevant to you. Not everyone is in the same position as you and depreciation is a big factor when buying a vehicle and that’s what a camper van is a vehicle, and most vehicles until recently lost humongous amounts from new. You could say the same about your house because you have to live somewhere and you have had 30 years of enjoyment and paying a mortgage to get it.

Fair points, fully appreciate.